The Middle East is on the brink of a major conflict as Iran's drones strike the US embassy in Riyadh, while Israeli troops enter southern Lebanon. This escalating regional war has the potential to disrupt global energy markets and trigger a wider conflict. But here's where it gets controversial: the US and Israel's justification for their actions is under scrutiny, with some questioning the true motives behind the war.
The drone attack on the US embassy in Riyadh caused a minor fire, prompting the diplomatic mission to warn Americans to stay away. This followed an earlier Iranian drone strike on the US embassy in Kuwait, as Iran continued to target US bases and personnel in the region. Meanwhile, Israel has been carrying out strikes and evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, virtually emptying the country south of the Litani River and turning the southern suburbs of Beirut into a ghost town.
The pro-Iran group Hezbollah also continued to target Israel, saying it launched two missile salvoes overnight targeting military bases in northern Israel. In response, Israel has acknowledged that its campaign against Hezbollah will involve boots on the ground, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
The US and Israel have continued their strikes against Iran, with the US claiming it has destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities. What started as a war between Iran and the US and Israel has quickly turned into a regional conflict with new fronts being opened each day.
The US and Israeli air war against Iran began on Saturday with attacks against Tehran, killing the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and prompting Iranian retaliation against Israel and missile attacks at Arab nations with US bases across the region. The fighting expanded rapidly to include at least nine countries and various pro-Iran groups.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said the war against Iran could take 'some time', while the US president, Donald Trump, has also acknowledged that it could take 'far longer' than initially planned. US officials have flirted with the idea of US boots on the ground in Iran, an anathema to analysts who point to the country's vast, mountainous geography as an obstacle to any troop presence.
The secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said the 'hardest hits are yet to come', as administration officials say their plan for the Iran campaign has so far gone better than expected. US officials have offered varying justifications for their actions, with Rubio claiming that the US's hand was forced by Israel. Trump, on the other hand, has at times said the goal was regime change in Iran, and at other times said he was solely trying to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and curb its ballistic missile program.
Netanyahu was more plain in his objectives, saying the US and Israel were 'creating the conditions' for the Iranian people to topple their government. Israeli analysts suggested that the Iran campaign came at a good time for Netanyahu and would boost flagging poll numbers before legislative elections.
In Iran, explosions were heard overnight across the country and particularly in the capital as the US-Israeli campaign continued. Estimates of people killed in the strikes ranged from 555 people to 1,500, including 165 people in a strike on a girls' elementary school in southern Iran. Iran has continued to shoot bursts of ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted. A few missiles broke through the country's sophisticated missile defense system, killing 11 people in Israel.
The US acknowledged the deaths of six soldiers, seemingly killed while stationed in Kuwait. Iran's strikes against energy infrastructure in the Gulf have paralyzed the oil-rich Gulf states, with Qatar announcing a halt to its largest liquid natural gas production facility, while Saudi Arabia ceased operations at its Ras Tanura oil refinery. Global energy prices jumped further after Iran closed the strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint for hydrocarbons, hitting several ships who attempted to cross.
In Lebanon, Israel has signaled that its campaign against Hezbollah could also be a long one. It is unclear, however, what resistance Hezbollah could offer this time, as Israel has severely degraded the group's capabilities through two years of daily airstrikes. Over the last two days, Israel has announced the killing of senior leaders in the group, including Hussein Makled, Hezbollah's intelligence chief.
Hezbollah has continued to attack Israel, announcing that it struck the Ramat David and Meron airbases in northern Israel with one-way drones, and that it had targeted a base in the Golan Heights with rockets. Domestically, Hezbollah has come under fire for pulling Lebanon into a war with Israel, in violation of the government's stated neutrality. On Monday, Lebanon's government took the unprecedented step of banning Hezbollah's military and security activity. The government instructed the judiciary to arrest the individuals responsible for firing rockets at Israel.
